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Nice start to the workweek ahead of Thursday storm

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Temperatures are nearing fifty degrees under sunny skies in the Steamboat Springs area early this Sunday afternoon. Monday will see a similarly nice day, with winds picking up on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a modest storm for Thursday.

A stream of moisture associated with a storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska is bringing precipitation to western Washington State. The storm is forecast to incorporate cold air moving southward across Alaska and elongate along the West Coast through midweek. Our area should see pleasant weather today and Monday with plenty of sun and high temperatures around our average of 51 F.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the workweek with high temperatures around five degrees above average as winds from the southwest pickup ahead of the evolving storm. The storm should be moving east on Tuesday thanks to an upstream wave of Pacific energy that will eventually slingshot around the bottom of the storm and cause it to split over the Great Basin on Thursday.

We should see temperatures drop a few degrees on Wednesday, but still stay above average, as winds stay from the southwest ahead of the splitting storm. That slingshotting piece of energy is forecast to move overhead by Thursday midday quickly followed by the northern part of the splitting storm. Much cooler temperatures with highs dropping into the lower forties and increasing chances for showers are forecast for Thursday. Any showers may start as rain early in the day in the Yampa Valley, and we may see a rain-snow mix before snow is forecast by the afternoon.

Moisture quickly dries out by Friday, so the storm will be relatively short-lived, limiting snowfall amounts. Plus, snowfall is always uncertain in the southwest flow ahead of storms, and our favorable northwest flow behind the storm never really gets going. We may see around an inch or two of snowfall in town and 4-8” at the Steamboat Ski Resort from this storm, but splitting storms are notoriously unpredictable and there may be changes in the forecast.

So stay tuned to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon where I hope to be discussing the ongoing storm and what is looking like a nice start to next weekend.

Cool and dry fall weather for the weekend

Thursday, October 27, 2022

Temperatures are mired in the low thirties under cloudy skies late this Thursday afternoon in Steamboat Springs. The 3” of snowfall on my deck by the ski resort this morning marked the fifth straight day of snow in town, worthy of any mid-winter storm cycle! After a likely cold Friday morning, the sun returns during the day even as temperatures stay unseasonably cool in the forties. And these cool temperatures will not change much through the weekend despite clouds on Saturday and more sun on Sunday.

The storm that brought our first accumulating snow of the season has formed an eddy over southern Colorado and is forecast to move through Texas on Friday, leaving our area under an unseasonably cold air mass. I’m having a tough time piecing together the accumulated snowfall on the hill since I only archive two days worth of cams, but it appears mid-mountain approached twenty inches of snow from the storm thanks to some enhancement on Sunday night and last night that did not occur up top, where about a foot of snow was recorded.

The weather forecast models are predicting low temperatures tonight in the single digits, ten to fifteen degrees below our 24 F average, though this will be dependent upon clearing skies which may or may not happen overnight. So we may see a situation similar to last Tuesday morning where the forecast cold overnight temperatures never materialized thanks to the insulating effect of clouds.

But sunny skies are forecast for Friday, with high temperatures around five to ten degrees below our rapidly declining average of 53 F. Temperatures will stay similar through the weekend, with clouds on Saturday thanks to a weak Pacific wave of energy that is forecast to split around our area. The sun returns for Sunday and temperatures finally warm toward fifty degrees on Monday and average on Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure begins moving across the West.

That ridge of high pressure will be forced by another large and cold low pressure area that is forecast to form off the West Coast thanks to a wave of energy currently in eastern Siberia that will eventually mix with both subtropical moisture from the south and cold air from the north moving through the Bering Sea. Weather forecast models disagree on the evolution of that low pressure area, but another significant wintry storm may be in our future after midweek. Be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll discuss what follows the pleasant start to the work week.

Wintry weather persists through the work week

Sunday, October 23, 2022

A wintry day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday with snow falling and temperatures around thirty degrees late this afternoon, which is a stark change from the sunny skies and mid-sixties of yesterday. Our recent beautiful fall weather will not be returning this work week as the snow lingers into tomorrow before beginning again later Tuesday and possibly lasting through Thursday.

A deep and cold low pressure system has taken the place of the persistent ridge of high pressure over the West, bringing the first accumulating snowfall to all elevations of north central Colorado. The cold front associated with the storm blasted through our area just before sunrise, and I have accumulated almost 4” of snow today on my deck near the base of the mountain with 8” shown on the Steamboat mid-mountain powdercam.

The snows have become more showery late this afternoon, and these showers will linger overnight and through tomorrow morning in the favorable cold, moist and unstable northwest flow. We will see a small break in the unsettled weather from later Monday into Tuesday before two more waves of energy keep the cold and unsettled weather going through Thursday.

The first of these waves is currently located in the Gulf of Alaska and will force the current storm eastward on Tuesday before grazing our area starting in the afternoon. An associated stationary front looks to be around our area for at least Tuesday afternoon which will bring more snow showers, heavier and more numerous at the higher elevations.

The second wave is currently located near the Aleutian Islands and may or may not interact with that stationary front. While the bulk of that second storm looks to bring a round of moderate to sometimes heavy snowfall to our area Wednesday night into Thursday, the interaction between this storm and that stationary front will determine if we see continued light to sometimes moderate showers through Tuesday night and the first half of Wednesday or not.

Along with the snowy week, cold temperatures will also be noteworthy, considering our average high temperature is 55 F and average low temperature is 25 F. Our high temperature today of 42 F occurred just after midnight, though our daytime high was only 33 F, over twenty degrees below average. Look for low temperatures in the teens tonight and possibly approaching the single digits for Tuesday morning, While we will see warmer high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, they will likely stay below the mid-forties. And the Thursday storm will be even colder, with another day mired in the thirties and low temperatures in the mid-single digits on Friday morning under clearing skies.

While it currently looks like a nice and more seasonable weekend, I’ll have more regarding that forecast in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.

Wintry weather arrives for Sunday

Thursday, October 20, 2022

A stunning fall day is over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon with cloudless skies and temperatures in the upper sixties. An approaching wintry storm will drop temperatures several degrees and increase breezes on Friday, with another several degree drop on Saturday along with windy conditions. The weather changes in earnest Saturday night as the high temperature for Sunday will occur at midnight and precipitation begins as rain in the lower elevations and snow around mid-mountain. Continued falling temperatures and increasing precipitation rates are forecast through the day Sunday, with several inches of snow in town likely by Monday morning.

Our wintry storm is currently moving through the Gulf of Alaska and is forecast to cross the Pacific Northwest coast later Friday. After a gorgeous fall day today with temperatures approaching seventy degrees, look for increases breezes from the northwest and west on Friday with temperatures dropping several degrees.

While Saturday morning may start sunny, clouds will increase in the afternoon, knocking another several degrees off the temperatures and winds will substantially increase first from the west and then the southwest as the approaching storm dives into the Great Basin.

Precipitation should begin overnight Saturday, with rain in town and snow above mid-mountain, though snow levels are forecast to drop from 9500′ Saturday night to 4800′ by Monday morning as the strongest part of the storm passes overhead. We may see a rain-snow mix in town for much of the day Sunday, with the heaviest precipitation rates forecast through the day and all snow likely later in the day. High temperatures may not make it out of the low forties in town on Sunday and twenties at mountain-top, with accumulating snow at pass level and snowfall rates exceeding an inch per hour at times making travel difficult over Rabbit Ears Pass.

After Sunday, most will not be surprised to see several inches of snow in town by Monday morning, with considerably more at the higher elevations, possibly exceeding a foot at the top of Mt. Werner. Be sure to check the newly updated Steamboat powdercam up top and the Thunderhead powdercam at mid-mountain through the day Sunday as our first winter-like storm barrels through the area.

While the strongest part of the storm is associated with a leading wave ejecting out of the low pressure area on Sunday, the bulk of the storm is forecast to move through Colorado on Monday as weather forecast models show it splitting. So look for precipitation to end Monday morning, but with even colder temperatures by several degrees than on Sunday. And while Monday morning will be cold with low temperatures likely in the teens, we may approach the single digits by Tuesday morning.

The screaming message is to get outside and finish your outdoor projects by Saturday ahead of the wintry weather. Be sure to check back on Sunday afternoon where I’ll be discussing the ongoing storm and what looks like more snow later in the work week in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative.

More gorgeous fall weather ahead

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Another brilliant fall day is over the Steamboat Springs area late this Sunday morning with bluebird skies and temperatures in the mid-fifties, on their way to the mid-sixties. More sunny and warm days with seasonably cool nights are on tap for the rest of the work week, with Wednesday and Thursday forecast to be the warmest days with high temperatures approaching seventy degrees. Take advantage of the beautiful weather and great fall color hanging on below 9000′ this week as a wintry change may be in our future around next weekend.

The atmosphere is still favoring the current dominant pattern of a ridge of high pressure over the West sandwiched between two deep areas of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific and eastern North America. Additionally, an eddy cut off from the jet stream is currently traversing the Desert Southwest, though that will be too far south to affect on our weather.

So look for more gorgeous fall weather through the work week as the ridge of high pressure moves only slightly eastward, with high temperatures five to ten degrees above our average of 58 F and low temperatures within several degrees of our average of 26 F. Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be the warmest days of the the week and high temperatures may even flirt with the seventy degree mark!

Enjoy the remaining fall color while spending as much time outside this week and finishing up outdoor projects as it appears an abrupt change in our weather comes as soon as next weekend. A storm from Siberia is currently approaching the Kamchatka Peninsula and is forecast to continue to mix with cold air from the North Pole through the work week as it crosses through the Aleutian Islands. Concurrently, the southern part of the eastern Pacific low pressure area is forecast to form another eddy that loiters well off the coast of California before eventually interacting with the incoming Siberian storm.

There is weather forecast model uncertainty with that interaction and the timing and strength of the eventual storm that may change our weather towards winter around next weekend. So be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon as there will be a lot to talk about.

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1 July 2021

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