Shower chances to decrease for the weekend with comfortable temperatures
Thursday, July 31, 2025
After reaching almost eighty degrees just after noon on this Thursday, the temperature near the base of the Steamboat Ski Resort fell fifteen degrees by 2 pm as a thunderstorm with brief moderate rain and pea-sized hail moved through. There may be some additional showers through this evening before drier air from the west brings comfortable temperatures and decreases thunderstorm chances for Friday and the weekend.
The monsoonal plume of moisture over our area the last two days will be severed and pushed east by a weak wave moving across the Great Basin, ejected from a storm in the Gulf of Alaska. Even though the sun has returned behind the early afternoon storm, there are good chances for an additional storm or two later this afternoon and evening ahead of winds shifting to the west and bringing much drier air overhead for the weekend.
This new weather regime will bring crisp overnight temperatures in the mid-forties, below our average of forty-seven degrees, and sunny mornings with high temperatures around our average of eighty-four degrees, quintessential Colorado mountain weather, replete with the chance for an afternoon or early evening thunderstorm on Friday and Saturday.
Even though winds over northern Colorado will be from the west, the NOAA Smoke Plume model has southwesterly winds over Utah, feeding smoke from the Monroe Canyon wildfire in central Utah and the Bravo Dragon wildfire in Grand Canyon National Park towards our area. Right now, a hazy start to both Saturday and Sunday is forecast, with gradually improving air quality by later Friday. These smoke forecasts are challenging, as they depend on both the forecast winds and forecast fire intensity, and it isn’t easy to get one right, much less both! The forecast is run four times a day, so check the latest iteration before your outdoor activities.
Although it doesn’t feel like it, our July precipitation of 1.66 inches was close to our average of 1.72 inches, largely due to the inch of rain we received the day before Independence Day. The rain today will count toward our 1.8” average in August, which, when combined with the June 1.58” average, marks the driest three-month period of the year.
The Gulf of Alaska storm is forecast to rotate toward the Canadian West Coast early in the workweek, pumping up a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies and sending our high temperatures back into the upper eighties. Enjoy the beautiful weekend ahead, hope the smoke stays away, and I’ll have more details on the hot and dry start to the workweek and the possibility of a weak plume of monsoonal moisture for midweek in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Some moisture possible midweek
Sunday, July 27, 2025
Temperatures are in the upper eighties with mostly sunny skies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs. Even warmer temperatures, approaching ninety degrees, are forecast through the beginning of the workweek before monsoonal moisture appears on Wednesday and Thursday, reducing temperatures by a few degrees on Wednesday and more so on Thursday as a weakening Pacific storm grazes our area.
A ridge of high pressure is over the Southeast as a wave of low pressure traverses across the northern Canadian Plains. The ridge of high pressure will expand westward to start the workweek, bringing high temperatures approaching ninety degrees on Monday and Tuesday, around five degrees above our eighty-four-degree average.
Additionally, a weak area of low pressure associated with a storm in the Gulf of Alaska is approaching the California coast, making landfall by midweek. Southwesterly winds ahead of the low will conspire with southerly winds rotating clockwise around the high pressure to bring a weak, but hopefully moderate, surge of monsoonal moisture northward and over our area by midweek.
Unfortunately, the generally southwest wind over our area has transported smoke from the Dragon Bravo Fire in Grand Canyon National Park and now the Monroe Canyon fire in central Utah toward our area, leading to the hazy skies at times this weekend. That is expected to continue to start the workweek, according to the latest forecast from the NOAA Smoke model forecast, and may continue beyond the current two-day forecast window, which ends Tuesday morning. Check the model, which is run four times a day, for the latest smoke forecast for our area.
Wednesday and Thursday will be our best opportunity for showers from this surge of monsoonal moisture, though forecast rain amounts have steadily trended downward since I mentioned it in last Thursday’s weather narrative. Sadly, the duration of the event has also decreased, as the approaching Pacific storm turns our wind westerly and severs the monsoonal flow of moisture from the south by Friday. However, we will see cooler temperatures closer to average behind the passing Pacific disturbance on Thursday and Friday.
There is still time for the forecast to become wetter, despite the trends, if the Pacific disturbance arrives weaker than currently forecast. So let’s hope for a stronger monsoonal push more similar to the earlier forecasts, and check back Thursday afternoon for the latest details on the weekend weather.
Hot and dry weather to return for the weekend
Thursday, July 24, 2025
After reaching the low eighties, temperatures fell into the low to mid-seventies this Thursday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs when a shower with more wind than rain passed through town. While the sun is out now, we may see another shower later today before the monsoonal plume of moisture shifts eastward, bringing hot and dry weather for the weekend.
An area of low pressure is just off the coast of central California, and a high pressure cell over the western Atlantic, known as the Bermuda High, has shifted to the East Coast. Today will be the last day of shower chances until next week as the eastern high pressure shifts towards the Mississippi River Valley and severs the weak plume of monsoonal moisture overhead.
Dry air associated with the California low will replace the monsoonal moisture, eliminating shower chances and allowing temperatures to rise into the mid-eighties on Friday and Saturday, and upper eighties on Sunday, above our average high of eighty-four degrees, with mostly sunny skies.
However, as is the case today, hazy skies may persist on Friday and possibly part or all of the weekend as southwesterly winds transport smoke from the Dragon Bravo Fire in Grand Canyon National Park over our area. I have recently added the Purple Air widget, which measures air quality at the Thunderhead Lodge, to the home page, with easy access to the NOAA Smoke model forecast through the link underneath the widget.
The lack of productive storms this week is disappointing, but there is hope for a substantial push of monsoonal moisture starting next mid-week as another low pressure area forms off the coast of California from a storm in the Gulf of Alaska. This is the strongest signal yet for wetting rains from our struggling monsoon so far this season, but it is still a week away.
So enjoy another quintessential Colorado summer weekend, and I’ll have more details on the next possible surge of monsoonal moisture in my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon.
Monsoonal moisture will be close, but will it be close enough?
Sunday, July 20, 2025
Temperatures are at our average of eighty-four degrees with mostly sunny skies this Sunday mid-afternoon in Steamboat Springs, with similar temperatures expected through the workweek. While shower chances return Monday and last through the workweek, accumulating rain chances are marginal and will ultimately depend on how close we are to a plume of monsoonal moisture.
Dry air between an area of low pressure over Vancouver and high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico has temporarily interrupted our spotty flow of monsoon moisture since Thursday. Clockwise winds rotating around the high pressure will keep moist southwest flow near our area this week, with shower chances returning on Monday as some energy from a weakening eddy over southern Nevada mixes into the flow and encroaches on the dry air now overhead.
There may be better shower chances on Tuesday and Tuesday night if the eddy is absorbed into the southwest flow and passes overhead, but that will depend upon the ultimate track of the eddy, which is uncertain at this time.
Meanwhile, the Vancouver low pressure is forecast to elongate southward along the West Coast through Tuesday, eventually forming an eddy over northern California by midweek. The southwest winds ahead of the low pressure will carry dry air from well off the coast of California over the Great Basin, but our area should still be east of that dry air on Wednesday and Thursday for continued shower chances.
Current weather forecast models are not optimistic about accumulating rain over the four days of shower chances, but that could change depending on the track of moisture and energy in the southwest flow. But by Friday, Pacific energy moving through the Gulf of Alaska will expand the hot and dry weather over the Great Basin eastward, reducing shower chances and raising high temperatures towards ninety degrees by Saturday.
Enjoy the average summertime temperatures this week, hope for productive showers producing more rain than currently forecast, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for more details on the weekend’s weather.
Weekend to be a few degrees cooler with best shower chances on Friday
Thursday, July 17, 2025
After a mostly sunny morning in Steamboat Springs, temperatures have hit eighty-six degrees this Thursday mid-afternoon under partly sunny skies. Some approaching energy from Baja will conspire with Pacific energy to yield the best, but still modest, chance of showers this weekend on Friday, along with a few degrees of cooling that will persist through the weekend and into the following workweek.
A weak area of low pressure over Baja is forecast to move northward towards Nevada this weekend and interact with the jet stream moving across southern Canada. Some energy and moisture ejecting from the low will move northward before being forced eastward by the jet stream, and pass overhead later Friday. This will yield the best chance of afternoon, evening, and perhaps overnight showers of the weekend, along with slightly cooler temperatures around our average of eighty-four degrees, as the jet stream squashes the ridge of high pressure that brought the hot early-week temperatures.
The shower chances tomorrow are modest, and don’t even show up on the forty-eight-hour forecast for Steamboat Springs from the short-range HRRR weather forecast model, which I just added to the homepage, and can be found by clicking the ‘Precipitation Forecasts’ heading. Not only does the panel have forecasts for temperature, wind and precipitation, but also smoke. Because I host the charts on my server, I can add Previous forecast and Next forecast links to compare model iterations and determine model variability for our location.
Waves of energy rotating through the jet stream will keep the chance of showers around on Saturday and Sunday, with the classic sunny mornings giving way to some clouds by the afternoon.
The jet stream is forecast to sag southward along the West Coast to start the workweek, which may eject the low pressure over Nevada toward our area by midweek, increasing the chance of showers as monsoonal moisture from the south is ingested.
Unfortunately, there is no clear monsoonal signature behind the midweek event as high pressure over the Southeast migrates westward and severs any southerly connection to moisture.
So let’s hope for some rain on Friday, enjoy the cooler near-average temperatures of the weekend, and check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon for any updates to our missing monsoon.
