Wintry weather to return tonight and last through midweek
Sunday, May 5, 2024
A windy day with overcast skies and temperatures in the mid-sixties is over the Steamboat Springs area this Sunday mid-afternoon. The winds are in advance of a strong cold front that will start snow at all elevations around midnight tonight and continue accumulating snowfall through Tuesday, even in town. While most of the precipitation will be over by later Tuesday, cool temperatures and showery weather will continue through the work week and into next weekend.
Today will be the warmest day of the week as winds from the south increase ahead of a powerful winterlike storm that brought 26” of snowfall to Palisades Tahoe as of the morning ski report. The center of the storm is currently entering northern Utah, and in advance of the storm we are seeing strong winds and warm temperatures in the mid-sixties, which is about five degrees above our average of 61 F.
Wintry weather returns with a vengeance around midnight tonight as the cold front associated with the storm sweeps through the area. Moderate to heavy snowfall with rates over an inch per hour at times should leave 3-6” at mid-mountain at the now-closed Steamboat Resort and an inch or two in town by early Monday morning.
Another 3-6” should fall on the hill during the day Monday, and with high temperatures in town twenty degrees below average and only around forty degrees, another inch or two could fall in town with continued very strong winds from the west. As cold as that is, it looks like the record of 37 F in 1978 for the coldest high temperature in town is safe, but not by a lot!
While we should see the snows subside or even end by Monday night, the weather will not improve on Tuesday as energy slingshot around a second very cold storm in the Gulf of Alaska brings another round of snowfall to our area. With temperatures in town still mired near forty degrees, another 3-6” should fall on the hill with another inch or two in town.
While the bulk of the precipitation should be over by Tuesday night, the cold will linger as the Monday storm is forced to rotate back to the west thanks to a stout ridge of high pressure extending from the Midwest back towards British Columbia. Waves of energy still rotating around the storm will keep those forty-degree high temperatures around on Wednesday with some occasional light showers.
Unusually, the weather forecast models have the initial storm continuing to move slowly westward before forecasting some of it to move southward back into the Great Basin on Wednesday. While the exact track of the storm will determine whether we see more precipitation, temperatures are forecast to slowly warm to around fifty degrees on Thursday and mid-fifties by Friday with generally unsettled weather lasting into the beginning of the weekend.
But I expect changes to that forecast during the week, so relish the upcoming May snowstorm and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for details on what we may expect for Mother’s Day weekend.
Quick-hitting storm on Friday to precede a pleasant weekend
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Filtered sunshine, cool breezes and temperatures in the mid-forties are over the Steamboat Springs area this Thursday mid-afternoon. Another cool and quick-hitting storm will bring some precipitation to our area on Friday afternoon ahead of warming temperatures and clearing skies to start the weekend. But a much stronger and longer-lasting wintry storm to start the work week will bring increasing clouds and breezes on a still-warm Sunday.
Contrary to the storm on Monday night that brought 3.5” of snow to mid-mountain and some brief accumulations on the grassy surfaces in town by Tuesday morning, the storm last night only produced a few snowflakes. But cool air behind the storm has kept temperatures in the mid-forties today, almost fifteen degrees below our average of sixty degrees.
A similarly cool day is forecast for Friday as a quick-hitting storm brings a cold front through our area around noon on Friday. The storm may bring some light rain showers to town through Friday afternoon and 1-4” of snow at the now-closed Steamboat Resort, with rapid clearing by Friday evening behind the storm.
Meanwhile, a strong and cold storm currently moving through the Gulf of Alaska is forecast to move through Oregon by Saturday night and the Great Basin on Sunday. A ridge of high pressure ahead of the storm will pass over the Rockies this weekend, and after a cool start to Saturday morning, high temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid-sixties for a rare pleasant weekend in this active spring weather pattern.
By Sunday, clouds and winds from the southwest are forecast to increase ahead of the approaching wintry storm, even as high temperatures stay similar to Saturday. Enjoy this break in the weather as the cold front associated with the storm is currently timed for Sunday night. And yes, that means we may wake up to snowflakes in town again on Monday morning.
Right now, the storm looks to hang around through Tuesday, but be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon where I’ll have more details on the next wintry blast to start the work week.
Unsettled weather to continue through the week
Sunday, April 28, 2024
A gray day is over the Steamboat Springs area with temperatures only in the low forties on this Sunday mid-afternoon. Showers will continue today before taking a break on Monday followed by a quick round of showers Tuesday morning. Another break is advertised for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, with a Tuesday afternoon shower possible, before a cold front later on Wednesday brings the chance for accumulating snow at all elevations by Thursday morning.
The gusty easterly winds that reached above 50 mph at mountain-top Saturday around noon have been replaced by winds from the northwest behind the departed storm now located over the Northern Plains. Showers have emerged today in the cool, moist and favorable northwest flow and are expected to continue through the the early evening, keeping daytime temperatures in town well below our average of 58 F. The good news is that we will see peeks of sun, though any surface heating will quickly destabilize the atmosphere and force more showers with thunder, brief locally heavy rain and small hail possible.
Meanwhile, a piece of energy rotating around an eastward-moving cold storm in the Gulf of Alaska will force a transient ridge of high pressure over our area on Monday for a pleasant day with high temperatures warming to near average. A cool front associated with that energy is forecast to graze our area Tuesday morning, accompanied by another round of showers with 1-4” of snow possible at and above mid-mountain at the now-closed Steamboat Resort.
We should have some sun Tuesday afternoon, with some showers possible, as the Gulf of Alaska storm moves through the Pacific Northwest and approaches our area on Wednesday. Weather forecast models are struggling with the speed and intensity of the front, but agree it will be colder than the one Tuesday morning, perhaps cold and strong enough to bring snow to the Yampa Valley floor by Wednesday night.
You didn’t think we were done with winter yet, did you? A reinforcing surge of cool air from western Canada behind the storm is currently forecast to move through our area on Thursday, continuing snow showers through the day and overnight. Right now, it looks like there could be several inches of snow accumulation on the unpaved surfaces in town between Wednesday night and Friday morning, and another 4-8” on the hill.
But I would expect some changes to that forecast as we move through the workweek, so be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon.
Cool and wet weekend ahead
Thursday, April 25, 2024
After a beautiful sunny Thursday morning in Steamboat Springs with the high temperature of the day reaching 61 F at noon, skies have clouded over, showers have started and temperatures have fallen to fifty degrees as of mid-afternoon. The current unsettled weather is only a precursor to cooler and wetter weather that will persist through the weekend, with significant snow possible at the higher elevations.
An eddy of low pressure that was earlier off the southern California coast has rejoined the jet stream over Arizona and is moving east thanks to another colder storm currently moving through the Pacific Northwest. The leading storm is forecast to be over northeastern Colorado by Friday morning, with showers continuing through this afternoon and overnight, with an inch or two possible at the now-closed Steamboat Resort by Friday morning.
Meanwhile, the upstream storm is forecast to move through the Great Basin on Friday and be over or just south of our area later on Saturday. Showers should diminish, or even end for a time on Friday between the storm systems before picking up again Friday afternoon and overnight. High temperatures for the day will fall into the mid-fifties, several degrees below our average of 58 F.
The cold front associated with the second storm should move through Friday night accompanied by moderate to heavy showers. Snow accumulations will be limited to elevations above around 9000′, with 2-5” possible by Saturday morning, along with possibly difficult driving conditions on Rabbit Ears Pass at times. High temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday will only approach fifty degrees in town and low thirties near the top of Mt. Werner.
Depending upon the exact storm track, winds may turn to be from the east on Saturday if the storm center is south of us, with gusts as high as 50 mph possible at mountain-top. While an easterly wind usually dooms precipitation for our area, we may see moisture from the Front Range pulled over the Continental Divide and continue showers through the day and overnight. In that case, we could see another 2-5” of snow between Saturday and Sunday mornings at the higher elevations.
The storm is forecast to be over the northeast corner of Colorado by Sunday morning with showers continuing in the favorable, moist and unstable northwest flow behind the storm, with those showers heaviest in the afternoon.
Temperatures are forecast to warm to near average on Monday, though a grazing storm to our north may bring another round of afternoon and evening showers to our area. And for those willing to travel, note that I have added the snowstake cams for Winter Park, Arapahoe Basin and Loveland to the SnowAlarm home page, as those areas could see one to two feet of snowfall from the second storm between Friday night and Sunday morning.
Enjoy the weekend, and I’ll be back with my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Sunday afternoon with more details on what is currently looking like typical spring weather for the last days of April and the first days of May.
Classic spring weather to last through midweek
Sunday, April 21, 2024
Temperatures are in the mid-thirties in Steamboat Springs and upper twenties near the top of the Steamboat Resort under brilliant blue skies this Sunday mid-morning. Classic spring weather has arrived for Closing Day today and will last through midweek ahead of a pattern change that will bring unsettled weather back to our area for the end of the work week and the coming weekend.
The Steamboat Resort will close today with a base of 60” at mid-mountain and 108” up top after receiving a season total of 389” of snowfall at mid-mountain. Curiously, the resort does not publish the upper-mountain season total which certainly is far higher. And interestingly, even though the 389” fell short of the 448” received last season by over four feet, we enjoyed six days of a foot or more reported at mid-mountain this season, compared to only two last season!
I’ve attached an updated chart of the water stored in the Yampa-White-Little Snake basin snowpack in black which includes the measurements from the 2015-2016 season in red, which water managers say is thus far very similar to this year. The upper blue and lower red lines show the aggregated maximum and minimum snowpack measurements since the 1985-1986 season. Interestingly, the 2015-2016 season shows a couple of storms in late April and early May, and it looks like at least that first storm cycle may be repeated this weekend.
A ridge of high pressure is currently over most of the West while a compact storm is centered over Vancouver. Our weather will be quite pleasant today, with a high temperature around sixty degrees, which is about five degrees above our average of 56 F. Even warmer temperatures in the mid-sixties are expected for Monday, though afternoon winds will be increasing ahead of the Vancouver storm which is forecast to travel along the Canadian border and graze our area.
There may be some showers overnight Monday, with temperatures falling back a few degrees Tuesday as the cool front associated with the storm grazes our area. Light showers will be possible from Tuesday afternoon through the overnight thanks to some moisture and weak energy trailing the storm.
Meanwhile, a storm currently over the Aleutians is forecast to split, with the southern end forming a weak eddy that crosses the southern California coast later Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure ahead of the storm is forecast to bring the warmest day of the week on Wednesday with high temperatures approaching the upper sixties.
That storm is forecast to move through Colorado later Thursday with showers likely by the end of the day. This will mark the beginning of a cool and wet period that looks to last through the weekend as additional Pacific energy moves through the West. So enjoy the classic springtime weather through midweek, and be sure to check back to my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon for the latest details on the coming weekend weather.
