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Unsettled weather for the upcoming week

Saturday, February 8, 2020

Sunny skies and warm temperatures are gracing the Steamboat Springs area early this Saturday afternoon as the town digs out of the impressive departing storm. The two day total ending at 5 am Saturday morning at mid-mountain at the Steamboat Ski Area was 22.5”, with almost of that falling between Wednesday and Friday nights. Tuesday and Friday currently look like the driest days of the upcoming week with cool temperatures and chances for some snow each of the remaining days.

I am pushing this weather narrative out a day early because I wanted to talk about the previous storm and note that there will be a cold front moving through our area during the Winter Carnival festivities at Howelesen Hill tonight, where there may be a world record firework attempt.

The storm delivered as advertised, though snow quality suffered due to a dense layer of snow that fell between 5 pm and 9 pm on Thursday evening. The 8.5” I measured on my deck at 5 pm was light and fluffy, and I observed some graupel falling around then, which looked like the round “Dipping Dots” frozen treat. By 9 pm, the additional 4” on my deck was much denser than what fell before it, and I believe this layer of snow fell over the whole mountain. Distressingly, there was also a layer of ice on the grab rails at the loading areas of the Sundown and Elkhead lifts first thing Friday morning which indicated an earlier period of freezing precipitation that likely fell on top of the dense layer of snow. While it was snowing heavily that morning, with snowfall rates approaching 3” per hour at times, the denser layer in between the Thursday daytime snowfall and Friday morning snowfall made for some inconsistent skiing.

But the sun is out now in advance of a cold front expected to pass through our area this evening, courtesy of the northern part of a splitting storm currently affecting the Pacific Northwest. Even the short-range weather forecast models are struggling with the forecast snow amounts, with snows, if they occur, starting after sunset and peaking around mid-evening before ending within a few hours after midnight. But the latest models have backed off snow amounts for our area in favor of areas to our south, making for an uncertain forecast. It’s likely we will see some snow around and behind the front, with briefly high snowfall rates of an inch per hour or more at times this evening, and at this point I would guess 2-5” which would be reported Sunday morning.

The cold front looks to stall south of our area as the main part of the split storm moves southward along the California Coast on Sunday. But energy ejecting out of the California part of the storm will overrun the front and keep the possibility of light snows for our area for Sunday and Monday.

Meanwhile, a wave of Pacific energy rounds the persistent ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific on Sunday. Not only with this bring another cold front through our area around Monday night, but it will also force the California storm eastward, with the two storms merging near the Four Corners on Tuesday. Most of the precipitation will be to our south, but light snow for our area will be possible for early Tuesday morning, along with cool temperatures, before the weather clears for most of the day Tuesday and some of Wednesday.

But hard to predict waves of Pacific energy are forecast to round the still-present ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific and graze our area later Wednesday and Thursday. These waves may end up too far east to give us much weather, or move further west giving us much better chances for snow, and at this time the outcome is uncertain.

It does appear that there will be a break in the unsettled weather for at least part of Friday before another storm may approach our area for the beginning of next weekend. I should have more details on the weekend storm by my next regularly scheduled weather narrative on Thursday afternoon, though I may push that to Wednesday if weather models trend stronger with the possible storms.

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